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Iceland Voters Set to Reject Debt Deal – NYTimes.com
After the dust began to settle last year — after the banks failed, the currency collapsed, the stock market crashed and the government fell — the dazed inhabitants of Iceland woke up to another unpleasant problem: They owed, it seemed, some $5.3 billion to more than 300,000 angry people in the Netherlands and Britain.
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The royals of the Netherlands and the royals in England are closely related. They are the same damn family. Note that both will happily tie up and loot their own peasants when their offshore banks go under. The ROYAL Bank of Scotland which was really a pirate operation, is a prime example.
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The British peasants will pay 100% of that mess. Now, the Crowns of Europe are going to twist the arms of the FREE people of Iceland to pay 100% of the money the PRIVATE banks headquartered in Iceland lost. This will end up being a transfer of wealth from 350,000 Icelanders to 300,000 Crown subjects! This means instant and long running poverty for the Icelanders who didn’t cause the bankruptcy except in one key regard: they didn’t regulate the bankers.
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NOR DID THEY EXECUTE THEM. You can bet, if bankers did this to Hu and Wen, they would be entertaining millions of Chinese in a televised execution in a stadium.
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The question of how to pay has convulsed this tiny country of about 319,000 people, severely damaging its international reputation and paralyzing its economic recovery. It has so incensed its residents that on Saturday they are expected to reject overwhelmingly the latest Icesave repayment plan, in the first national referendum ever held here on any subject.
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First, they overthrew their government that allowed this crime. Then they forced this referendum on the government. They RIOTED. This is becoming a full populist uprising and one we must study closely for it teaches us important lessons: power grows out of the people when they take to the streets and RESIST.
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Not the crazed actions of individuals like the 9/11 guy who went nuts and personally attacked the Pentagon or the IRS plane terrorist. No, the masses have to move for this is a COLLECTIVE action, not individual. It is interesting the two guys who went nuts here were both computer people who lost their jobs due to offshoring of computer tech jobs! Computer guys were always very big on being smarter than the rest of us and individuals who hate unions, group actions, etc.
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Harsh lesson here: individuals are swatted down like flies when confronting the State. And both men had very mixed up ethics and wanted a mythological individuality they got during the Reagan years of tax cutting and cowboy politics. But this is exactly what killed their own industry and left them high and dry in the first place! Horns of dilemma! Caution: this is Cave of Wealth and Death reversals! What we often wish for is fatal for our future survival.
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In the scheme of world debt, $5.3 billion is small potatoes. But it represents more than 40 percent of Iceland’s gross domestic product. The interest alone would eat up one-fourth of the country’s revenues, said Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir, who called finding a resolution to the Icesave dispute “a matter of life and death for the Icelandic economy.”…
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The people who parked their money in Iceland deserve to lose every pfenning! They did this to AVOID THE COLLECTIVE at home. They wanted to live with the fun stuff of collective taxed civilization while living like free individuals. Well, their gamble failed! DUH! They didn’t want regulations! Well, eat the losses, fools! For fools are the wine and cheese of the demonic goddesses in the Cave of Wealth and Death! This is why the Cave is littered with bones.
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…The referendum is being closely watched abroad, where the worry is that people in other financially flailing countries might be emboldened to rise up and refuse to honor financial obligations stemming from the failures of their banks. …..
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Note that the goofs who took over the Tea Party don’t talk about all of this. And the goofs who want us to borrow from ourselves with no one saving a penny but instead, creating loans out of thin air based on our future taxes: these problems are very dangerous. The US public can also revolt but we are stuck in the same trap the Icelanders are in: we import much of our stuff we use to keep alive!! Read further to see what exactly this means:
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….Birgitta Jonsdottir, a member of Parliament from the fledgling people-power Civic Movement Party, said that a “no” vote would send a strong message to the world. First, she said, “We don’t believe in the socialization of private debt.” Second: “It is time for Britain to treat us like a sovereign nation and not a colony.” And third: “They can’t use the I.M.F. to blackmail us into doing what they want on Icesave.” But it seems they can….
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Iceland will be cut off from world energy systems. Now listen carefully: the reason the Rulers wanted the Copenhagen CO2 derivatives trading was to TAX everyone in the North for using energy. This sly move would also enrich the bankers who need to play some market that won’t create obvious inflation. The people of Iceland need to use energy to stay alive unlike say, people living in Bermuda who can survive without this.
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Trapped in this problem, the bankers can squeeze the populace at will. If there is no carbon trade game, then it can be some other thing used to constrict the use of energy or rather, force the collective to pay more for energy and have the profits from this flow to bankers, NOT OPEC. And so, the bankers will squeeze the people if Iceland by cutting them out of energy markets.
….A “no” vote “would effectively be saying that Iceland doesn’t want to be part of the international financial system,” Lord Myners, financial services secretary to Britain’s treasury, warned in January. That some Icelanders seem willing to take the consequences — to risk becoming “the Cuba of the north,” in the words of Mr. Skulason
Federal Reserve Increases Rate at Which Banks Can Borrow From It10.0104
Marked up Discounts
Monday began with jitters over the market's reaction to a raise in the U.S. discount rate. In other words, the Federal Reserve increased the rate at which select banks can borrow from it.
The so called 'discount window', was intended to be an emergency lending facility. The lender of last resort. Instead, it's become the lender of any resort. The increase in the discount rate means it won't be as cheap to borrow money from the Fed.
The relevance to you shouldn't be underestimated. Aussie banks get much of their funding from overseas, so they are affected by what happens in the global interbank market. If the increase in the discount rate is a signal that the broader interest rate is going to be raised as well, then this would affect the availability of funds and their cost.
In a debt drugged, liquidity obsessed world, a change in interest rates can go from affecting profitability to affecting solvency very quickly. And it's not just the banks that are high on cheap credit. Take a look at a listed company's balance sheet. Most of them use leverage to boost their returns.
Low interest rates encourage this.
The reason the western world economy has become particularly interest rate sensitive is because of the way it uses debt. Instead of funding an asset with debt and then paying it off with the increased revenue, more debt is used to pay off the previous borrowings as they come due. This is referred to as rolling over debt.
By doing this, a company (or government) is able to sustain a high level of leverage over time. The debt is never truly repaid.
But, if interest rates rise, then the cost of borrowing goes up. Traditionally, this would have decreased the amount of borrowing. In our modern economy more must be borrowed in order to pay off the old debt. That means companies have no choice but to accept a change in rates.
The financial market reaction to a potential increase in the more important Fed Funds Rate would not have been pleasant. However, this unpleasantness didn't eventuate, indicating that financial markets expect rates to sit tight for some time to come. Based on this, Dan Denning is a step closer to declaring victory over our Money Morning editor Kris Sayce, with several beers at stake.
Neither editor is being suspicious enough in their analysis. Let's take a trip down memory lane with a former Federal Reserve economist, Michael Belongia. What happened in the past when the discount rate was changed?
In this podcast, Mr Belongia talks about how a change in the discount rate can lead to a change in the actual interest rate without FOMC approval, or much media attention. Going behind the back of the FOMC, which is supposed to set the interest rate, is scandalous. That didn't stop it from happening regularly, according the Belongia.
He explains that the spread between the discount rate and fed funds rate should be kept constant according to Fed policy. So, if the Fed's Board changes the discount rate, then the Fed Chairman can march down to the Fed's trading desk and instruct the traders to change the Fed Funds rate to maintain the spread. This conveniently avoids the often less complicit FOMC.
Belongia's accounts are shocking to anyone who believes in the integrity of that particular institution and sickening to the sensible people who don't.
As mentioned, governments around the world are also exposed to the problem of having to roll over debt. To Senator Joyce's delight, the lucky country is no exception. Dan Denning points out that “… according to 2008 data, over $400.1 billion dollars of Aussie foreign debt – or 35.4% of the total – matures in 90-days or less. Nearly half the debt total – $514 billion – matures in one year or less.”
That's a lot of debt to refinance on such a regular basis, so any change in interest rates will be felt quickly.
The press often refers to the shortening maturity of government debts. This implies governments will have to roll over debt more often. Such shortening has occurred in the U.S. and is now a major concern. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has referred to it as the “critical Achilles heel”.
The “greatest financial crisis globally ever”
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported the confession of Kingpin Alan Greenspan. At least, we consider it a confession. Low interest rates have largely been blamed for the financial crisis by those who warned of its imminence. Greenspan set those rates artificially low. Often in a cunningly deceptive way, according to Mr Belongia. Anyway, here is how Greenspan's conscience was finally cleared on Bloomberg:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis was “by far” the worst in history and called the recovery from the global recession “extremely unbalanced.”
The world economy has undergone “by far the greatest financial crisis globally ever.”
Greenspan said that while the economy was in worse shape in the Great Depression, the recent financial crisis was potentially more harmful than that in the 1930s because “never had short-term credit literally withdrawn.”
Greenspan also said “fiscal affairs are threatening this outlook” for recovery, as Congress and the White House face difficulty raising taxes or cutting spending.”
So, not only is his reconciliation late, but his diagnosis is too.
Speaking of confessions, our other 'favourite' economist, former Enron adviser and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, has declared his ignorance publicly:
“I'm craving the chance to do some deep thinking, and I haven't been doing a lot of that.”
While this fact is familiar to most, it does not excuse Krugman's behaviour. Having consistently advocated the inflation of economic bubbles, to the devastation of homeowners, employees and shareholders around the world, he now advocates a level of government debt that would make Senator Joyce faint, or pop, whichever comes first.
But best of all is this part of Krugman's article:
“I guess doing the really creative academic work does require a state of mind that's hard to maintain throughout your whole life.”
Creativity! Economics and creativity? Economics is about understanding timeless principles. Perhaps this is where he went wrong – too much creativity. We have seen the results of Krugman's creative solutions, indicating he doesn't understand the economy, or wishes to indebt future generations beyond help.
Resources Comeback
RBA governor Rick Battelino explained that the resources boom has overcome an interruption known as the GFC:
… now that has passed, the underlying dynamics of the resource boom are starting to reappear…
It's hard to put a finger on exactly how much investment is going to take place, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect mining investments to rise to 6 per cent of GDP over the next few years. That would be about twice as high as it got to in the previous boom. It's a very big boom.
It certainly is big. But so are China's resource reserves.
In an article on oilprice.com, Dave Forest of the e-letter Pierce Points, warns of the potential price reaction should China decide to begin using those reserves, or even selling them. In fact, they may have already started, with vast steel exports going to Europe.
The effect a short term fall in commodity prices could have on Aussie resource investment and development could be pivotal to the future of the Australian economy.
China itself is of course an economic basket case, as cleverly shown in this business spectator slideshow.
Nevertheless, it seems a BRIC barbeque is roasting the PIIGS and may provide demand for resources to fuel their fire. (Thanks to Daily Reckoning reader Wayne for the inspiration on that one!)
Confidence
Confidence indicators took a hit in the U.S. and Germany, while U.S. new home sales dropped to a record low. This is particularly striking, as central banks often tout these two factors as their primary focus. “Restoring confidence in the market” and “supporting house prices” are phrases that echo through the halls of the central banks on a continuous basis.
Meanwhile, the US unemployment figures are proving disastrous, let alone the unemployment itself. The American Bureau of Labour Statistics has its own numbers in such a mess that the pollster Gallup has decided to help out.
The Poll informed the BLS that “nearly 20 percent [of the 20,000 adults in the work force polled] were working part time in January because they couldn't find a full-time job or had no work at all, and that they are having trouble affording basic necessities like food, shelter and health care.”
This tells a different story from the BLS estimates of below 10% unemployment.
U.S. banks continue their slide into oblivion, with 4 of the 161 bank failures since 2009 recorded last week. The outlook isn't much better. Bloomberg reports that “hundreds of banks may face insolvency as losses mount on commercial real-estate loans, according to a Feb. 10 report by the panel appointed by Congress to oversee the U.S. bailout program.”
Meanwhile The Telegraph uses some spectacular phrases in an article titled “Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown”. It even breaks the language barrier with the following: “…set off round two of our financial Götterdämmerung.” Götterdämmerung roughly translates to Godly twilight, implying an age of saviourless darkness.
Next up it suggests a “Monetary Stalingrad” and Eastern Europe “blowing up right now.” A more surgical approach was taken by Latvia's central bank governor, who declared the Latvian economy “clinically dead”, while protesters “trashed the treasury and stormed parliament.”
Needless to say, an excellent article.
Strangely enough, stock markets remain comparatively buoyant and Australia seems to be trundling along happily. Whether Mr Market has sucked in enough suckers before another crash is unclear. Daily Reckoning editors would probably be more concerned if the media was more optimistic, as this indicates complacency.
The Economic Climate
Former IMF economist Jeffrey Sachs provided some creativity of his own in a recent article:
Climate change science is a wondrous intellectual activity. Great scientific minds have learned over the course of many decades to “read” the Earth's history, in order to understand how the climate system works. They have deployed brilliant physics, biology, and instrumentation (such as satellites reading detailed features of the Earth's systems) in order to advance our understanding.
The Guardian, points out otherwise:
Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the findings.
This article was previously put forward as proof of claims made in the infamous IPCC report. The official withdrawal included the statement that “… it's one of those things that happens. People make mistakes and mistakes happen in science.”
While we are in agreement that mistakes happen, we do not agree that government policy should be based on anything quite so mistaken. This is especially so, as government policy is more often than not an inherent mistake as well.
In keeping with brilliantly balanced and fair journalism, the Guardian published the article of Jeffrey Sachs two days before the article about the withdrawal of the study. I wonder what readers think of that.
In the name of financial stability!
Dan Denning also reported on the latest government scheme to support its funding aspirations:
Yesterday's Financial Review even mentioned the possibility that a shrinking government bond market would be a problem for Australian banks. That's because a new regulation proposed by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) would require a certain percentage of bank assets to be made up of high credit quality bonds. And MBS.
MBSs are Mortgage Backed Securities, those things that have a habit of blowing up when house prices fall.
Acropolis Now
According to Porter Stansberry, the publisher of Stansberry and Associates Investment Research, the Greeks have pulled off a feat that would make Sun Tzu jealous. Greek military spending has been excluded from the annual budget, because it is a “state secret”. So, according to Stansberry, about 30% of the Greek governments' spending isn't even declared.
Nickolai Hubble
The Daily Reckoning Week in Review